Risk Markets And Politics

Thursday, June 02, 2005

Gold and the Dollar

The resiliency of gold while dollars rallied Monday through Wednesday, along with the recent inflation fears receding, suggest that the metal's negative correlation to the dollar is softening. France's rejection of economic liberalism in favor of progressive liberalism has ended the Euro's bid to become the world's reserve currency of choice, a move which began in earnest in mid-2002 when it became clear that the U.S. intended to invade Iraq. While many had correctly predicted the result of the vote (Tradesports put the odds of a yes vote at 27% on the Friday before the referendum), the depth of Europe's aversion to Anglo-American capitalism was not fully priced-into the foreign exchange markets. Predictably, today was a day of profit-taking strength in the Euro while the markets await tomorrow's US payroll number. I would expect another leg down for the Euro some time after the release of the number. The number may however appear weak following April's strong growth and spark a short-lived squeeze.

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