Risk Markets And Politics

Monday, July 11, 2005

Clear As Day

Another conundrum, or a hint at the answer to the riddle? As VIX makes new multi-year lows, David Merkel at RealMoney [premium] notes: "many investors have become yield hogs, and have sold puts and calls to increase income in a tough environment. This is akin to the problems that bond managers face today in their quest to find yield." Meanwhile, Brad Setser is becoming more persistent in his suggestions that the U.S. housing market and, more generally, household wealth owes much to China's trade surplus and its impact on yields. Most intriguing is Tradesport's contract on whether the yuan will be revalued by January 1st; for it seems to be tracking the VIX since the beginning of the year, especially since the mysterious "April Fool's Day" print.

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