Economic Derivatives Observations
Now, in a way, ignoring measurement and Goodhart's Law-esque issues, economic derivatives certainly are more precise, and address risks captured only roughly by more established markets. These risks are the sort that develop over time though and might be better served (at least in terms of certain grand visions of risk-sharing) by standing markets as opposed to sporadic auctions on "noisy" releases that are only open to institutions.
It was actually surprising that Dennis Gartman brought-up the IEM election markets. More exciting, he spontaneously asked a representative from the investment bank most closely associated with the auctions if they might extend the infrastructure to political events. While this wasn't ruled out, frequent events with more direct economic relevance were stressed in response. An equity earnings release auction was cited as a possibility.
Interest in earnings release markets was predicted here at the beginning of the year, with the caveat that these numbers are heavily managed and that they are rather easily skewed by a penny or two. Earlier in the week, Victor Niederhoffer described a typically enlightening little study on just this point. The sample of earnings surprises was nothing like a normal distribution, and was quite suspicious in terms of the asymmetry between small upside and downside surprises. Earnings release markets would operate in light of such irregularities.
One can't help but notice that tax and subsidy related markets can be described as political, economically relevant and reasonably frequent. In spite of the arguments in favor of such markets, they would inevitably be somewhat controversial. Perhaps it will take an organization with a certain amount of gravitas to forge ahead in that area, especially in the United States.