Last Month, Marc Groz of Topos Capital graciously invited me to deliver a guest lecture to his class at NYU. The talk, "Measured Enthusiasm for Prediction Markets"
, was given to about 20 students. It introduced prediction and decision markets, then went off into tax and policy markets. As the title suggests, it wasn't evangelical, but I hope to have excited a few students about this new frontier. The presentation includes a couple of problematic scenarios that I have not seen discussed yet.
Some of these issues such as hedged manipulation could be addressed if the CFTC begins regulating event markets. More on that shortly..